Greatest upset in FIFA World Cup history quickly aged even better

 Spain walked off the field in Atlanta on Sunday knowing they had dominated almost everything except the scoreboard.

The European champions controlled 74 percent possession, generated 2.29 expected goals, and repeatedly pinned Cape Verde inside their own half. Yet after 90 minutes at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Spain had been held to a 0-0 draw by a nation playing in its first-ever World Cup match.

For Spain, it was a frustrating start, with one World Cup viewer losing nearly $1 million after the massive upset. For everyone else, it was a reminder of one of the World Cup's enduring truths: early tournament shocks do not always mean what they seem to.

Few results illustrate that better than Saudi Arabia's stunning 2-1 victory over Argentina at the 2022 World Cup. At the time, the upset looked catastrophic. Argentina arrived in Qatar riding a 36-match unbeaten streak and carrying the weight of enormous expectations. Lionel Messi was playing what many believed would be his final World Cup, and Argentina were among the favorites to lift the trophy.

Saudi Arabia was given just an 8.7 percent chance of victory by data company Gracenote, making it statistically the biggest World Cup upset ever recorded. After Messi opened the scoring from the penalty spot, the match appeared to be unfolding exactly as expected.

Then everything changed. Saleh Al-Shehri equalized shortly after halftime before Salem Al-Dawsari produced one of the goals of the tournament, curling a stunning effort beyond Emiliano Martinez to complete an extraordinary comeback. Argentina pushed desperately for an equalizer, but Saudi Arabia held firm to secure a result that immediately entered World Cup folklore.

The defeat was viewed as a potential disaster for Argentina's title hopes. Instead, it became little more than a footnote. Argentina recovered by beating Mexico and Poland to win their group before advancing past Australia in the round of 16. They survived a chaotic quarterfinal against the Netherlands, surrendering a two-goal lead before prevailing in a penalty shootout, then comfortably dispatched Croatia in the semifinals.

What followed in the final became one of the most celebrated matches in soccer history.

Argentina raced into a 2-0 lead against France before Kylian Mbappe scored twice in the span of 97 seconds to force extra time. Messi appeared to have won it in extra time, only for Mbappe to complete his hat trick from the penalty spot. After a 3-3 draw, Argentina finally secured the World Cup in a penalty shootout, delivering Messi the one trophy that had eluded him throughout his career.

Spain will hope the same proves true in 2026. The draw against Cape Verde was nowhere near as damaging as Argentina's defeat in Lusail, but it served as a reminder that even the tournament favorites are vulnerable at the start of the World Cup.

Cape Verde relied on discipline, organization, and a remarkable performance from 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha, who made seven saves to frustrate one of the sport's most talented squads.

Four years ago, Saudi Arabia showed that a heavyweight can be stunned on the biggest stage. Argentina responded by winning the World Cup anyway.

Spain now has the chance to show that one disappointing result in June does not have to define what happens in July.